Seismites in the Kathmandu basin and seismic hazard in central Himalaya

Soft-sediment deformation structures have been analyzed at six sites of the Kathmandu valley. Microgranulometric study reveals that silty levels (60 to 80% silt) favor the development of soft-sediment deformation structures, while sandy levels (60 to 80% sand) are passively deformed. Nonetheless well sorted sand levels (more than 80% sand) generate over-fluid pressure during compaction if located beneath a silty cap, leading to fluidization and dike development. 3-D geometry of seismites indicates a very strong horizontal shearing during their development. Using a physical approach based on soil liquefaction during horizontal acceleration, we show that the fluidization zone progressively grows down-section during the shaking, but does not exactly begin at the surface. The comparison of bed-thickness and strength/depth evolution indicates three cases: i) no soft-sediment deformation occurs for thin (few centimeters) silty beds; ii) the thickness of soft-sediment deformation above sandy beds is controlled by the lithological contrast; iii) the thickness of soft-sediment deformation depends on the shaking intensity for very thick silty beds. These 3 cases are evidenced in the Kathmandu basin. We use the 30 cm-thick soft-sediment deformation level formed during the 1833 earthquake as a reference: the 1833 earthquake rupture zone extended very close to Kathmandu, inducing there MMI IX-X damages. A 90 cm-thick sediment deformation has therefore to be induced by an event greater than MMI X. From a compilation of paleo and historic seismology studies, it is found that the great (M similar to 8.1) historical earthquakes are not characteristic of the greatest earthquakes of Himalaya; hence earthquakes greater than M similar to 8.6 occurred. Kathmandu is located above one of the asperities that laterally limits the extent of mega-earthquake ruptures and two successive catastrophic events already affected Kathmandu, in 1255 located to the west of this asperity and in similar to 1100 to the east. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.