Predicting success of metabolic surgery: age, body mass index, C-peptide, and duration score

Background: Surgery is the most effective treatment of morbid obesity and leads to dramatic improvements in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Gastrointestinal metabolic surgery has been proposed as a treatment option for T2DM. However, a grading system to categorize and predict the outcome of metabolic surgery is lacking. The study setting was a tertiary referral hospital (Taoyuan City, Taoyuan County, Taiwan). Methods: We first evaluated 63 patients and identified 4 factors that predicted the success of T2DM remission after bariatric surgery in this cohort: body mass index, C-peptide level, T2DM duration, and patient age. We used these variables to construct the Diabetes Surgery Score, a multidimensional 10-point scale along which greater scores indicate a better chance of T2DM remission. We then validated the index in a prospective collected cohort of 176 patients, using remission of T2DM at 1 year after surgery as the outcome variable. Results: A total of 48 T2DM remissions occurred among the 63 patients and 115 remissions (65.3%) in the validation cohort. Patients with T2DM remission after surgery had a greater Diabetes Surgery Score than those without (8 +/- 4 versus 4 +/- 4, P < .05). Patients with a greater Diabetes Surgery Score also had a greater rate of success with T2DM remission (from 33% at score 0 to 100% at score 10); A 1-point increase in the Diabetes Surgery Score translated to an absolute 6.7% in the success rate. Conclusion: The Diabetes Surgery Score is a simple multidimensional grading system that can predict the success of T2DM treatment using bariatric surgery among patients with inadequately controlled T2DM. (C) 2013 American Society for Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery. All rights reserved.