Journal
STUDIES IN HISTORY AND PHILOSOPHY OF MODERN PHYSICS
Volume 41, Issue 3, Pages 263-272Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.shpsb.2010.07.006
Keywords
Simulation; Climate; Weather; Uncertainty; Ensemble; Prediction
Funding
- National Science Foundation [0824287]
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Simulation-based weather and climate prediction now involves the use of methods that reflect a deep concern with uncertainty. These methods, known as ensemble prediction methods, produce multiple simulations for predictive periods of interest, using different initial conditions, parameter values and/or model structures. This paper provides a non-technical overview of current ensemble methods and considers how the results of studies employing these methods should be interpreted, paying special attention to probabilistic interpretations. A key conclusion is that, while complicated inductive arguments might be given for the trustworthiness of probabilistic weather forecasts obtained from ensemble studies, analogous arguments are out of reach in the case of long-term climate prediction. In light of this, the paper considers how predictive uncertainty should be conveyed to decision makers. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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