Journal
STRUCTURE AND INFRASTRUCTURE ENGINEERING
Volume 11, Issue 12, Pages 1616-1631Publisher
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/15732479.2014.983528
Keywords
dams; dam safety; monitoring; data analysis; statistical models
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Funding
- National Nature Science Foundation of China [51079127, 51179171, 51279180]
- National Basic Research Program of China [2013CB035901]
- Key Science and Technology Innovation Team of Zhejiang Province [2010R50034]
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Based on the idea that time-effect deformation can be regarded as a state vector indicating the characteristics of concrete dams, a hydrostatic seasonal state (HSS) model is proposed for improving the accuracy of the data analysis of concrete dams. According to the theory of non-stationary time series, the state equation of the HSS model is represented for objectively extracting the time-effect deformation from monitoring data of total deformation and to interpret its evolution accurately. In this study, the HSS model is applied to an arch dam case, and it is estimated by using the expectation-maximisation algorithm. The results illustrate that the HSS model can efficiently estimate the time-effect deformation from monitoring data of total deformation. Compared with the hydrostatic seasonal time model, the proposed HSS model shows an improvement in fitting precision and prediction ability.
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