Simulation-based time-dependent reliability analysis for composite hydrokinetic turbine blades

The reliability of blades is vital to the system reliability of a hydrokinetic turbine. A time-dependent reliability analysis methodology is developed for river-based composite hydrokinetic turbine blades. Coupled with the blade element momentum theory, finite element analysis is used to establish the responses (limit-state functions) for the failure indicator of the Tsai-Hill failure criterion and blade deflections. The stochastic polynomial chaos expansion method is adopted to approximate the limit-state functions. The uncertainties considered include those in river flow velocity and composite material properties. The probabilities of failure for the two failure modes are calculated by means of time-dependent reliability analysis with joint upcrossing rates. A design example for the Missouri river is studied, and the probabilities of failure are obtained for a given period of operation time.