Journal
STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
Volume 27, Issue 7, Pages 1637-1650Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s00477-013-0701-6
Keywords
Climate extreme events; Generalized extreme value; Generalized Pareto; Maximum likelihood; Return period
Ask authors/readers for more resources
In this study, generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) were fitted to the maximum and minimum temperature, maximum wind speed, and maximum precipitation series of Zanjan. Maximum (minimum) daily and absolute annual observations of Zanjan station from 1961 to 2011 were used. The parameters of the distributions were estimated using the maximum likelihood estimation method. Quantiles corresponding to 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years return periods were calculated. It was found that both candidate distributions fitted to extreme events series, were statistically reasonable. Most of the observations from 1961 to 2011 were found to fall within 1-10 years return period. Low extremal index (theta) values were found for excess maximum and minimum temperatures over a high threshold, indicating the occurrence of consecutively high peaks. For the purpose of filtering the dependent observations to obtain a set of approximately independent threshold excesses, a declustering method was performed, which separated the excesses into clusters, then the de-clustered peaks were fitted to the GPD. In both models, values of the shape parameters of extreme precipitation and extreme wind speed were close to zero. The shape parameter was less negative in the GPD than the GEV. This leads to significantly lower return period estimates for high extremes with the GPD model.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available