Journal
STATISTICS IN MEDICINE
Volume 33, Issue 10, Pages 1750-1766Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1002/sim.6056
Keywords
multi-state model; cure model; Cox-Snell residuals; colon cancer; deviance residuals
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Funding
- National Institutes of Health grants [CA083654, CA129102]
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In cancer clinical trials, patients often experience a recurrence of disease prior to the outcome of interest, overall survival. Additionally, for many cancers, there is a cured fraction of the population who will never experience a recurrence. There is often interest in how different covariates affect the probability of being cured of disease and the time to recurrence, time to death, and time to death after recurrence. We propose a multi-state Markov model with an incorporated cured fraction to jointly model recurrence and death in colon cancer. A Bayesian estimation strategy is used to obtain parameter estimates. The model can be used to assess how individual covariates affect the probability of being cured and each of the transition rates. Checks for the adequacy of the model fit and for the functional forms of covariates are explored. The methods are applied to data from 12 randomized trials in colon cancer, where we show common effects of specific covariates across the trials. Copyright (c) 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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