Journal
STATISTICS IN MEDICINE
Volume 27, Issue 28, Pages 5907-5928Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1002/sim.3409
Keywords
health surveillance; spatial model; exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA); Bayesian method; Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)
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In this paper a novel method for the monitoring of disease maps over time in a Surveillance setting is described. The approach relics upon the use of a spatial model that is fitted to Current spatial data and is smoothed with historical spatial estimates. The method of smoothing is a vector exponentially weighted moving average procedure. A simulation study with a range of scenarios is presented and finally a case study of monitoring infectious disease spread is presented. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons. Ltd.
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