Journal
STATISTICAL SCIENCE
Volume 29, Issue 1, Pages 81-90Publisher
INST MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS
DOI: 10.1214/12-STS412
Keywords
Computer models; Bayesian statistics; history matching; Bayes linear; emulation; galaxy formation
Categories
Funding
- EPSRC
- STFC
- MUCM Basic Technology initiative
- Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council [EP/E00931X/1] Funding Source: researchfish
- EPSRC [EP/E00931X/1] Funding Source: UKRI
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Cosmologists at the Institute of Computational Cosmology, Durham University, have developed a state of the art model of galaxy formation known as Galform, intended to contribute to our understanding of the formation, growth and subsequent evolution of galaxies in the presence of dark matter. Galform requires the specification of many input parameters and takes a significant time to complete one simulation, making comparison between the model's output and real observations of the Universe extremely challenging. This paper concerns the analysis of this problem using Bayesian emulation within an iterative history matching strategy, and represents the most detailed uncertainty analysis of a galaxy formation simulation yet performed.
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