A Branching Process to Characterize the Dynamics of Stem Cell Differentiation

The understanding of the regulatory processes that orchestrate stem cell maintenance is a cornerstone in developmental biology. Here, we present a mathematical model based on a branching process formalism that predicts average rates of proliferative and differentiative divisions in a given stem cell population. In the context of vertebrate neurogenesis, the model predicts complex nonmonotonic variations in the rates of pp, pd and dd modes of division as well as in cell cycle length, in agreement with experimental results. Moreover, the model shows that the differentiation probability follows a binomial distribution, allowing us to develop equations to predict the rates of each mode of division. A phenomenological simulation of the developing spinal cord informed with the average cell cycle length and division rates predicted by the mathematical model reproduces the correct dynamics of proliferation and differentiation in terms of average numbers of progenitors and differentiated cells. Overall, the present mathematical framework represents a powerful tool to unveil the changes in the rate and mode of division of a given stem cell pool by simply quantifying numbers of cells at different times.