On the data and analysis of the research output of India and China: India has significantly fallen behind China

An analysis of the number of research papers from India and China in the fields of sciences and engineering between the years 1975 and 2012 is presented. The results show that while Indian research output has increased steadily, the Chinese research output has been increasing at a rate far outpacing that of India. The research output of China has been increasing with distinct inflection points that show an acceleration in output growth. The research output for India shows periodic inflection points that show either an acceleration or deceleration in output growth. The possible reasons for the inflection points are discussed. Simple statistical analyses are used to analyze the trends in output. Although multiple factors affect a nation's research output, this paper highlights that the government programs targeted to increase the research output from universities may create inflection points resulting in a rapid increase in the research output. The article also highlights that India has fallen far behind China in terms of scientific and engineering research output, providing important clues for the future growth of the two countries.