Journal
SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES
Volume 54, Issue 9, Pages 1400-1406Publisher
SCIENCE PRESS
DOI: 10.1007/s11430-011-4235-9
Keywords
decadal prediction; global warming; multi-decadal climate variability; the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition; CMIP3 multi-model
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Funding
- National Basic Research Program of China [2011CB952000]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [40810059003]
- Chinese Academy of Sciences [XDA05090103]
- Natural Science Foundation of USA [ATM-0917743]
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The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that the climate projection using climate models that took account of both human and natural factors provided credible quantitative estimates of future climate change; however, the mismatches between the IPCC AR4 model ensembles and the observations, especially the multi-decadal variability (MDV), have cast shadows on the confidence of the model-based decadal projections of future climate. This paper reports an evaluation of many individual runs of AR4 models in the simulation of past global mean temperature. We find that most of the individual model runs fail to reproduce the MDV of past climate, which may have led to the overestimation of the projection of global warming for the next 40 years or so. Based on such an evaluation, we propose an alternative approach, in which the MDV signal is taken into account, to project the global mean temperature for the next 40 years and obtain that the global warming during 2011-2050 could be much smaller than the AR4 projection.
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