Journal
SCIENCE
Volume 342, Issue 6154, Pages 127-132Publisher
AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1126/science.1237825
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Funding
- Lockheed Martin Corporation [SRA 11.18.11]
- Network Science Collaborative Technology Alliance
- U.S. Army Research Laboratory [W911NF-09-2-0053]
- Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency [11645021]
- Future and Emerging Technologies Project [317 532]
- European Commission
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The lack of predictability of citation-based measures frequently used to gauge impact, from impact factors to short-term citations, raises a fundamental question: Is there long-term predictability in citation patterns? Here, we derive a mechanistic model for the citation dynamics of individual papers, allowing us to collapse the citation histories of papers from different journals and disciplines into a single curve, indicating that all papers tend to follow the same universal temporal pattern. The observed patterns not only help us uncover basic mechanisms that govern scientific impact but also offer reliable measures of influence that may have potential policy implications.
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