Journal
SCIENCE
Volume 341, Issue 6145, Pages 492-498Publisher
AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1126/science.1240543
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- Office Of The Director
- Office Of Internatl Science &Engineering [1159100] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- NERC [NE/H023852/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- Natural Environment Research Council [NE/H023852/1] Funding Source: researchfish
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The future impacts of anthropogenic global change on marine ecosystems are highly uncertain, but insights can be gained from past intervals of high atmospheric carbon dioxide partial pressure. The long-term geological record reveals an early Cenozoic warm climate that supported smaller polar ecosystems, few coral-algal reefs, expanded shallow-water platforms, longer food chains with less energy for top predators, and a less oxygenated ocean than today. The closest analogs for our likely future are climate transients, 10,000 to 200,000 years in duration, that occurred during the long early Cenozoic interval of elevated warmth. Although the future ocean will begin to resemble the past greenhouse world, it will retain elements of the present icehouse world long into the future. Changing temperatures and ocean acidification, together with rising sea level and shifts in ocean productivity, will keep marine ecosystems in a state of continuous change for 100,000 years.
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