Journal
SCIENCE
Volume 337, Issue 6091, Pages 228-232Publisher
AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1126/science.1219013
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Funding
- UK Natural Environment Research Council
- European Research Council
- NERC [NE/I011889/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- Natural Environment Research Council [NE/I011889/1] Funding Source: researchfish
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Predicting when future species extinctions will occur is necessary for directing conservation investments but has proved difficult. We developed a new method for predicting extinctions over time, accounting for the timing and magnitude of habitat loss. We applied this to the Brazilian Amazon, predicting that local extinctions of forest-dependent vertebrate species have thus far been minimal ( 1% of species by 2008), with more than 80% of extinctions expected to be incurred from historical habitat loss still to come. Realistic deforestation scenarios suggest that local regions will lose an average of nine vertebrate species and have a further 16 committed to extinction by 2050. There is a window of opportunity to dilute the legacy of historical deforestation by concentrating conservation efforts in areas with greatest debt.
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