Journal
SCIENCE
Volume 331, Issue 6017, Pages 578-582Publisher
AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1126/science.1197175
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Funding
- Swiss National Science Foundation (NCCR-Climate)
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft [62201185, 62201236]
- Austrian Science Fund FWF [P15828, F3113-G02]
- Institut National de Recherches Archeologiques Preventives
- Andrew W. Mellon Foundation
- European Union [017008, 212250, 036961]
- Austrian Science Fund (FWF) [P15828] Funding Source: Austrian Science Fund (FWF)
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Climate variations influenced the agricultural productivity, health risk, and conflict level of preindustrial societies. Discrimination between environmental and anthropogenic impacts on past civilizations, however, remains difficult because of the paucity of high-resolution paleoclimatic evidence. We present tree ring-based reconstructions of central European summer precipitation and temperature variability over the past 2500 years. Recent warming is unprecedented, but modern hydroclimatic variations may have at times been exceeded in magnitude and duration. Wet and warm summers occurred during periods of Roman and medieval prosperity. Increased climate variability from similar to 250 to 600 C.E. coincided with the demise of the western Roman Empire and the turmoil of the Migration Period. Such historical data may provide a basis for counteracting the recent political and fiscal reluctance to mitigate projected climate change.
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