Journal
SCIENCE
Volume 330, Issue 6006, Pages 982-985Publisher
AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1126/science.1194134
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Funding
- Science and Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health
- Vaccine Modeling Initiative of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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The epidemiology of whooping cough (pertussis) remains enigmatic. A leading cause of infant mortality globally, its resurgence in several developed nations-despite the availability and use of vaccines for many decades-has caused alarm. We combined data from a singular natural experiment and a detailed contact network study to show that age-specific contact patterns alone can explain shifts in prevalence and age-stratified incidence in the vaccine era. The practical implications of our results are notable: Ignoring age-structured contacts is likely to result in misinterpretation of epidemiological data and potentially costly policy missteps.
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