Journal
SCIENCE
Volume 321, Issue 5895, Pages 1481-1484Publisher
AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1126/science.1160787
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Funding
- UK Natural Environment Research Council [NE/C51785X/1]
- National Centre for Earth Observation
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Office
- NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study
- Natural Environment Research Council [earth010002, earth010004, NE/C51785X/1] Funding Source: researchfish
- NERC [earth010004, earth010002] Funding Source: UKRI
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Climate models suggest that extreme precipitation events will become more common in an anthropogenically warmed climate. However, observational limitations have hindered a direct evaluation of model- projected changes in extreme precipitation. We used satellite observations and model simulations to examine the response of tropical precipitation events to naturally driven changes in surface temperature and atmospheric moisture content. These observations reveal a distinct link between rainfall extremes and temperature, with heavy rain events increasing during warm periods and decreasing during cold periods. Furthermore, the observed amplification of rainfall extremes is found to be larger than that predicted by models, implying that projections of future changes in rainfall extremes in response to anthropogenic global warming may be underestimated.
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