Journal
RISK ANALYSIS
Volume 29, Issue 5, Pages 648-661Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01195.x
Keywords
Infection; maximum likelihood estimation; microbial risk assessment; survival analysis; time-dose response
Categories
Funding
- Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
- U.S. Department of Homeland Security
- U.S. EPA Science to Achieve Results (STAR) [R83236201]
Ask authors/readers for more resources
While microbial risk assessment (MRA) has been used for over 25 years, traditional dose-response analysis has only predicted the overall risk of adverse consequences from exposure to a given dose. An important issue for consequence assessment from bioterrorist and other microbiological exposure is the distribution of cases over time due to the initial exposure. In this study, the classical exponential and beta-Poisson dose-response models were modified to include exponential-power dependency of time post inoculation (TPI) or its simplified form, exponential-reciprocal dependency of TPI, to quantify the time of onset of an effect presumably associated with the kinetics of in vivo bacterial growth. Using the maximum likelihood estimation approach, the resulting time-dose-response models were found capable of providing statistically acceptable fits to all tested pooled animal survival dose-response data. These new models can consequently describe the development of animal infectious response over time and represent observed responses fairly accurately. This is the first study showing that a time-dose-response model can be developed for describing infections initiated by various pathogens. It provides an advanced approach for future MRA frameworks.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available