Journal
RISK ANALYSIS
Volume 28, Issue 3, Pages 645-652Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01058.x
Keywords
Cox's theorem; non-classical logic; probability; uncertainty; vagueness
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In this article, I discuss an argument that purports to prove that probability theory is the only sensible means of dealing with uncertainty. I show that this argument can succeed only if some rather controversial assumptions about the nature of uncertainty are accepted. I discuss these assumptions and provide reasons for rejecting them. I also present examples of what I take to be non-probabilistic uncertainty.
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