Power generation and renewable potential in China

Due to long-term, coal-based electricity generation, China's power industry has produced not only heavy burdens on provincial coal supplies but has also caused serious environmental deterioration. This paper discusses the current status and future development trend of China's power generation. By using the Johansen co-integration test and the error correction model (ECM), the paper shows the existence of a synchronous increase between China's economy and its electricity production. Then, a GM(1,1) model is applied to predict China's economic production in 2015. By using that prediction, the ECM to estimate the related electricity generation. Next, based on the 2015 power generation prediction, this paper discusses the development trend of China's future power structure, especially in regard to renewable energy, and also provides an overview of the potential reserves and current development status of China's renewable power generation as well as the 12th Five-Year Plan (FYP), with suggestions for the future development of renewable energy. Last, a centralized combined dispatching policy, including trans-provincial and trans-regional power transmissions, is considered. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.