Journal
RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY
Volume 95, Issue 11, Pages 1261-1265Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2010.06.002
Keywords
Risk analysis validation; Risk-informed decision-making; Uncertainties
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Aven and Heide (2009) [1] provided interesting views on the reliability and validation of risk analysis. The four validation criteria presented are contrasted with modelling features related to the relative frequency-based and Bayesian approaches to risk analysis. In this commentary I would like to bring forth some issues on validation that partly confirm and partly suggest changes in the interpretation of the introduced validation criteria-especially, in the context of low probability-high consequence systems. The mental model of an expert in assessing probabilities is argued to be a key notion in understanding the validation of a risk analysis. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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