Journal
RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY
Volume 93, Issue 4, Pages 627-638Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2007.03.007
Keywords
probabilistic risk assessment; blast; glazing; structural reliability; uncertainty
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A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) procedure is developed which can predict risks of explosive blast damage to built infrastructure. The present paper focuses on window glazing since this is a load-capacity system which, when subject to blast loading, has caused significant damage and injury to building occupants. Structural reliability techniques are used to derive fragility and blast reliability curves (BRCs) for annealed and toughened glazing subjected to explosive blast, for a variety of threat scenarios. The probabilistic analyses include the uncertainties associated with blast modelling, glazing response and glazing failure criteria. Damage risks are calculated for an individual window and for windows in the facade of a multi-storey commercial building. If threat probabilities can be estimated then the paper shows illustrative examples of how this information, when combined with risk-based decision-making criteria, can be used to optimise risk mitigation strategies. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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