The impact of climate change on domestic tourism: a gravity model for Spain

Climate conditions are recognised as an important determinant of tourism demand and consequently different pioneering studies have started to estimate the impact of climate change on tourism flows. However, the lack of data concerning domestic tourism demand has motivated that the majority of studies focuses on international tourism flows or considers domestic trips as the alternative to the international ones. This paper investigates the impact of temperature on destination choice decisions in the context of domestic tourism in Spain. Using a data set that comprises Spanish domestic trips from 2005 to 2007 and applying a gravity model for regional data, results confirm climate as an important factor in determining domestic tourism flows. Moreover, a simulation exercise concerning an increase in the mean temperatures of the Spanish provinces is undertaken. Findings show that while colder provinces in the north of Spain would benefit from rising temperatures, warmer provinces in the south would experience a decrease in the frequency of trips there.