Journal
REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
Volume 16, Issue 3, Pages 595-602Publisher
SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-014-0712-y
Keywords
Climate change; Precipitation; Extreme events; Europe
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Funding
- Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research
- Italian Ministry of Environment, Land and Sea under the GEMINA project
- Project of strategic Interest NextData of the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research
- European Union [243888]
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Possible changes in the intensity of heavy precipitation events at the end of the twenty-first century over the Euro-Mediterranean region are investigated, using a subset of numerical climate simulations taking part to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). As a measure of the intensity associated with heavy precipitation events, we use the difference between the 99th and the 90th percentiles. Despite a slight tendency to underestimate the observed heavy precipitation intensity during summer and to overestimate it during winter, the considered CMIP5 models well represent the observed patterns of the defined 99th-90th percentile metric during both seasons for the 1997-2005 period over the Euro-Mediterranean region. Over the investigated domain, an increase of the width of the right tail of the precipitation distribution is projected in a warmer climate, even over regions where nearly the entire precipitation distribution becomes dryer. This is the case of the European domain within the 45N-55N belt.
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