MODELING THE AGE OF THE CAPE RIVA (Y-2) TEPHRA

Tephra from the Cape Riva (Y-2) eruption of Santorini has been found across the eastern Mediterranean. It presents an important link between marine and terrestrial records. A Poisson process (P Sequence) age-depth prior, with model averaging, is used to model individual previously published radiocarbon sequences, cross-linked with an exponential phase model parameter to obtain a robust age. Multiple sequences and C-14 determinations from 3 eastern Mediterranean data sets (Seymour et al. 2004; Margari et al. 2009; Muller et al. 2011; Roeser et al. 2012) are used in the model. The modeled age of the Y-2 tephra produced within this study is 22,329-21,088 cal BP at 95.4% probability.