Journal
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
Volume 6, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/ncomms10014
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Funding
- Spanish government
- Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER) through the project REPAIR [CGL2014-59677-R]
- European Union 7th Framework Programme (FP7) through the project IMPACT2C [282746]
- Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique et aux Energies Alternatives (CEA)
- University of Murcia
- SCIEX Programme
- Swiss National Supercomputing Centre (CSCS) [s78]
- 7th Framework EU [265240]
- Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Environment
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Ambitious climate change mitigation plans call for a significant increase in the use of renewables, which could, however, make the supply system more vulnerable to climate variability and changes. Here we evaluate climate change impacts on solar photovoltaic (PV) power in Europe using the recent EURO-CORDEX ensemble of high-resolution climate projections together with a PV power production model and assuming a well-developed European PV power fleet. Results indicate that the alteration of solar PV supply by the end of this century compared with the estimations made under current climate conditions should be in the range (-14%; +2%), with the largest decreases in Northern countries. Temporal stability of power generation does not appear as strongly affected in future climate scenarios either, even showing a slight positive trend in Southern countries. Therefore, despite small decreases in production expected in some parts of Europe, climate change is unlikely to threaten the European PV sector.
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