Journal
PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
Volume 285, Issue 1884, Pages -Publisher
ROYAL SOC
DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2018.0795
Keywords
mosquito; arbovirus; temperature; Aedes aegypti; Zika
Categories
Funding
- National Science Foundation
- Grants for Rapid Response Research (NSF-RAPID) [1640780]
- NSF [DEB-1518681]
- Stanford University Woods Institute for the Environment Environmental Ventures Program
- CDC [1U01CK000510-01]
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
- Direct For Biological Sciences
- Division Of Environmental Biology [1518681] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
Ask authors/readers for more resources
Temperature is a strong driver of vector-borne disease transmission. Yet, for emerging arboviruses we lack fundamental knowledge on the relationship between transmission and temperature. Current models rely on the untested assumption that Zika virus responds similarly to dengue virus, potentially limiting our ability to accurately predict the spread of Zika. We conducted experiments to estimate the thermal performance of Zika virus (ZIKV) in field-derived Aedes aegypti across eight constant temperatures. We observed strong, unimodal effects of temperature on vector competence, extrinsic incubation period and mosquito survival. We used thermal responses of these traits to update an existing temperature-dependent model to infer temperature effects on ZIKV transmission. ZIKV transmission was optimized at 29 degrees C, and had a thermal range of 22.7 degrees C-34.7 degrees C. Thus, as temperatures move towards the predicted thermal optimum (29 degrees C) owing to climate change, urbanization or seasonality, Zika could expand north and into longer seasons. By contrast, areas that are near the thermal optimum were predicted to experience a decrease in overall environmental suitability. We also demonstrate that the predicted thermal minimum for Zika transmission is 58 degrees C warmer than that of dengue, and current global estimates on the environmental suitability for Zika are greatly over-predicting its possible range.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available