Journal
PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
Volume 280, Issue 1770, Pages -Publisher
ROYAL SOC
DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2013.1174
Keywords
influenza; spatial pattern; weather; pandemic; school term; vaccination
Categories
Funding
- CIHR
- NSERC
- Department of Applied Mathematics at Hong Kong Polytechnic University (HKPU)
- HKPU 'Central Bidding' grant
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Understanding spatial patterns of influenza transmission is important for designing control measures. We investigate spatial patterns of laboratory-confirmed influenza A across Canada from October 1999 to August 2012. A statistical analysis (generalized linear model) of the seasonal epidemics in this time period establishes a clear spatio-temporal pattern, with influenza emerging earlier in western provinces. Early emergence is also correlated with low temperature and low absolute humidity in the autumn. For the richer data from the 2009 pandemic, a mechanistic mathematical analysis, based on a transmission model, shows that both school terms and weather had important effects on pandemic influenza transmission.
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