On the reliability of earth slopes in three dimensions

The paper investigates the probability of failure of two-dimensional and three-dimensional slopes using the random finite-element method (RFEM). In this context, RFEM combines elastoplastic finite-element algorithms with random field theory in a Monte Carlo framework. Full account is taken of local averaging and variance reduction over each element, and an exponentially decaying (Markov) spatial correlation function is incorporated. It is found that two-dimensional probabilistic analysis, which implicitly assumes perfect spatial correlation in the out-of-plane direction, may underestimate the probability of failure of slopes.