Journal
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Volume 111, Issue 9, Pages 3268-3273Publisher
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1222463110
Keywords
food security; AgMIP; ISI-MIP; climate impacts; agriculture
Categories
Funding
- US Department of Agriculture
- United Kingdom Department for International Development
- European Union [266992]
- Division Of Computer and Network Systems
- Direct For Computer & Info Scie & Enginr [1215910] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.
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