Journal
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Volume 110, Issue 7, Pages 2496-2499Publisher
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1218022110
Keywords
climate variability; ocean climate; zooplankton dynamics; California Current; ecosystem shifts
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Funding
- National Science Foundation [NSF/OCE-10-266607]
- Pacific Ocean Boundary Ecosystem Climate Study [NSF/OCE-0815280]
- Directorate For Geosciences
- Division Of Ocean Sciences [1026607] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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Long-term time series of marine ecological indicators often are characterized by large-amplitude state transitions that can persist for decades. Understanding the significance of these variations depends critically on the underlying hypotheses characterizing expected natural variability. Using a linear autoregressive model in combination with long-term zooplankton observations off the California coast, we show that cumulative integrations of white-noise atmospheric forcing can generate marine population responses that are characterized by strong transitions and prolonged apparent state changes. This model provides a baseline hypothesis for explaining ecosystem variability and for interpreting the significance of abrupt responses and climate change signatures in marine ecosystems.
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