Journal
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Volume 108, Issue 11, Pages 4313-4315Publisher
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1015078108
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- International Food Policy Research Institute through the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development [6012001]
- International Livestock Research Institute through the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development [81102850]
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment of major risks for African agriculture and food security caused by climate change during coming decades is confirmed by a review of more recent climate change impact assessments (14 quantitative, six qualitative). Projected impacts relative to current production levels range from -100% to +168% in econometric, from -84% to +62% in process-based, and from -57% to +30% in statistical assessments. Despite large uncertainty, there are several robust conclusions from published literature for policy makers and research agendas: agriculture everywhere in Africa runs some risk to be negatively affected by climate change; existing cropping systems and infrastructure will have to change to meet future demand. With respect to growing population and the threat of negative climate change impacts, science will now have to show if and how agricultural production in Africa can be significantly improved.
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