Journal
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Volume 106, Issue 25, Pages 10365-10369Publisher
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0809026106
Keywords
stochastic model; mathematical model; demographic stochasticity; waterfowl; epidemic
Categories
Funding
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [5U19Cl000401]
- James S. McDonnell Foundation
- Department of Homeland Security
- National Institutes of Health
- Direct For Biological Sciences
- Division Of Environmental Biology [0917853] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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Understanding the transmission dynamics and persistence of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) in the wild is an important scientific and public health challenge because this system represents both a reservoir for recombination and a source of novel, potentially human-pathogenic strains. The current paradigm locates all important transmission events on the nearly direct fecal/oral bird-to-bird-pathway. In this article, on the basis of overlooked evidence, we propose that an environmental virus reservoir gives rise to indirect transmission. This transmission mode could play an important epidemiological role. Using a stochastic model, we demonstrate how neglecting environmentally generated transmission chains could underestimate the explosiveness and duration of AIV epidemics. We show the important pathogen invasion implications of this phenomenon: the nonnegligible probability of outbreak even when direct transmission is absent, the long-term infectivity of locations of prior outbreaks, and the role of environmental heterogeneity in risk.
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