Journal
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Volume 106, Issue 51, Pages 21527-21532Publisher
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0907765106
Keywords
global warming; projections; climate; ocean
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Funding
- Academy of Finland [123113]
- Academy of Finland (AKA) [123113, 123113] Funding Source: Academy of Finland (AKA)
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We propose a simple relationship linking global sea-level variations on time scales of decades to centuries to global mean temperature. This relationship is tested on synthetic data from a global climate model for the past millennium and the next century. When applied to observed data of sea level and temperature for 1880-2000, and taking into account known anthropogenic hydrologic contributions to sea level, the correlation is >0.99, explaining 98% of the variance. For future global temperature scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report, the relationship projects a sea-level rise ranging from 75 to 190 cm for the period 1990-2100.
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