Journal
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Volume 106, Issue 13, Pages 5041-5046Publisher
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0809117106
Keywords
climate change; expert elicitation
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Funding
- Marie Curie International Fellowship [MOIF-CT-2005-008758]
- European Community Framework Program
- Climate Decision Making Center at Carnegie Mellon University through National Science Foundation [SES-0345798]
- Volkswagen Foundation [II/78470]
- Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
- EPSRC [EP/G013403/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- NERC [tynd10001] Funding Source: UKRI
- Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council [EP/G013403/1] Funding Source: researchfish
- Natural Environment Research Council [tynd10001] Funding Source: researchfish
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Major restructuring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and ENSO, are a source of concern for climate policy. We have elicited subjective probability intervals for the occurrence of such major changes under global warming from 43 scientists. Although the expert estimates highlight large uncertainty, they allocate significant probability to some of the events listed above. We deduce conservative lower bounds for the probability of triggering at least 1 of those events of 0.16 for medium (2-4 degrees C) and 0.56 for high global mean temperature change (above 4 degrees C) relative to year 2000 levels.
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