Spectral uncertainty quantification, propagation and optimization of a detailed kinetic model for ethylene combustion

The ability of a reaction model to predict the combustion behavior of a fuel relies on the rigorous quantification of the kinetic rate parameter uncertainty. Although the accuracy of a detailed kinetic model may be ensured, in principle, by a multi-parameter optimization, the inherent uncertainties in the fundamental combustion targets used for optimization cause the resulting optimized model to be characterized by a finite kinetic parameter space. In this work, spectral expansion techniques are developed and employed to quantify these uncertainties, using an as-compiled, detailed, H-2/CO/C-1-C-4 kinetic model for ethylene combustion as an example. Uncertainty was quantified for both the as-compiled model and the optimized model, and propagated into a wide variety of combustion experiment and conditions. Application of the spectral uncertainty method in mechanism reduction is also discussed. (c) 2009 The Combustion Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.