Assessment of climate change impact on floods from a techno-social perspective

Effective adaptation measures require proper understanding of the impacts of climate change (CC) on the livelihood of the local people, especially the poor who are more vulnerable to CC. In this study, trend analysis of the climatic parameters (precipitation and temperature) was carried out using RClimDex complemented by household surveys and focus group discussions to assess perceptions of the local people towards CC, its indicators and effects in the West Rapti River Basin (WRRB) of Nepal. Observed increasing trend in the temperature throughout the basin and increasing precipitation trend in some parts of the basin while decreasing trends in others demonstrate a spatial variation of CC thus affecting livelihood of local people. Survey results in selected Village Development Committees of Banke and Dang districts within the WRRB showed that agriculture was the most vulnerable to such changes. People perceived increased frequency of heavy rainfall along with unusual rainfall pattern as major indicators of CC, which is likely to cause floods damaging agricultural and settlement areas. This research tried to quantify trends of climate parameters, and also identified and prioritised causes of floods and impacts based on the people's perception which help to design effective plans and programmes to reduce CC impacts. This interdisciplinary research provides an overall framework for deriving climate change impact analysis for a river basin in particular and other Nepalese river basins in general with similar socioeconomic, topographic, and climatic conditions.