Journal
PLOS ONE
Volume 10, Issue 8, Pages -Publisher
PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0135581
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Funding
- Laboratoire d'Excellence LabexMER [ANR-10-LABX-19]
- French government under the program Investissements d'Avenir
- Regional Council of Brittany (SAD programme)
- European Research Council PALEOGENiE project [ERC-2013-CoG-617313]
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Globally distributed observations of size-fractionated chlorophyll a and temperature were used to incorporate temperature dependence into an existing semi-empirical model of phytoplankton community size structure. The additional temperature-dependent term significantly increased the model's ability to both reproduce and predict observations of chlorophyll a size-fractionation at temperatures below 2 degrees C. The most notable improvements were in the smallest (picoplankton) size-class, for which overall model fit was more than doubled, and predictive skill was increased by approximately 40%. The model was subsequently applied to generate global maps for three phytoplankton size classes, on the basis of satellite-derived estimates of surface chlorophyll a and sea surface temperature. Polar waters were associated with marked decline in the chlorophyll a biomass of the smallest cells, relative to lower latitude waters of equivalent total chlorophyll a. In the same regions a complementary increase was seen in the chlorophyll a biomass of larger size classes. These findings suggest that a warming and stratifying ocean will see a poleward expansion of the habitat range of the smallest phytoplankton, with the possible displacement of some larger groups that currently dominate. There was no evidence of a strong temperature dependence in tropical or sub-tropical regions, suggesting that future direct temperature effects on community structure at lower latitudes may be small.
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