Smoking Cessation Increases Short-Term Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Irrespective of Weight Gain: The Japan Public Health Center-Based Prospective Study

Objective: The effect of smoking cessation on the risk of diabetes has been reported previously. However, it is unknown whether the association is influenced by weight gain and other potential risk factors. Methods: The Japan Public Health Center-Based Prospective Study established in 1990 for Cohort I and in 1993 for Cohort II provided data, and 25,875 men and 33,959 women were analyzed. The response rate to the baseline questionnaire was 80.9%, and 68.4% of the respondents participated both the 5- and 10-year follow-up surveys. Smoking cessation was noted during the initial five years and the development of diabetes was reported in the subsequent five years. Results: An increased risk was observed among individuals who newly quit smoking compared with never smokers among men (odds ratio (OR) = 1.42, 95% CI = 1.03-1.94) and women (OR = 2.84, CI = 1.53-5.29). The risk of developing diabetes among male new quitters who gained 3 kg or more during the 5-year follow-up did not substantially differ from the risk among male never smokers with less than 3 kg of weight gain or no weight gain, while an increased risk was observed among male new quitters with less or no weight gain (OR = 1.46, 95% CI 1.00-2.14). An insignificant increased risk was observed among male new quitters with a family history of diabetes compared with male never smokers with a family history of diabetes. The risk was more than twice as high for male new quitters who used to smoke 25 or more cigarettes per day compared with never smokers (OR = 2.15, 95% CI: 1.34-3.47). Discussion: An increased risk of diabetes was implied among individuals who quit smoking. However, the increased risk was not implied among those who gained weight over the 5-years of follow-up. Those who had major risk factors for diabetes or who smoked heavier had a higher risk.