Is land abandonment affecting forest dynamics at high elevation in Mediterranean mountains more than climate change?

Global change is leaving a fingerprint on the appearance, structure and productivity of the treeline ecotone, modifying patterns of mountain ecosystems. In order to implement correct policies for managing natural resources, we examine how climate change interrelated with land-use abandonment could shape mountain forests at their upper limit in a Mediterranean environment, and how patterns of tree growth and periods of tree establishment guide the interpretation of global change effects on treeline dynamics. We reconstructed the population dynamics of mountain pine (Pinus mugo Turra spp. mugo) in the subalpine belt of the Majella National Park (Italy). In a test area of 14,440ha, proposed as a pilot study site for long-term ecological monitoring, temporal and spatial mountain pine distribution were examined since 1954 by historical aerial ortophotos. Multitemporal maps documented the expansion upwards (1m/year) and downwards (3m/year) of mountain pine. Mountain pine started to expand upwards into the formerly tree-free grassland in early 1900s, in association with a decline of the local human population and livestock. Land-use change was the major driving force of vegetation dynamics at the treeline in the Majella massif.