Journal
PHYSICAL REVIEW E
Volume 86, Issue 2, Pages -Publisher
AMER PHYSICAL SOC
DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.86.021106
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Funding
- NASA [NNX08AF69G]
- NASA [NNX08AF69G, 102126] Funding Source: Federal RePORTER
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Many driven threshold systems display a spectrum of avalanche event sizes, often characterized by power-law scaling. An important problem is to compute probabilities of the largest events (Black Swans). We develop a data-driven approach to the problem by transforming to the event index frame, and relating this to Shannon information. For earthquakes, we find the 12-month probability for magnitude m > 6 earthquakes in California increases from about 30% after the last event, to 40%-50% prior to the next one.
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