Maximum-likelihood approach to topological charge fluctuations in lattice gauge theory

We present a novel technique for the determination of the topological susceptibility (related to the variance of the distribution of global topological charge) from lattice gauge theory simulations, based on maximum-likelihood analysis of the Markov-chain Monte Carlo time series. This technique is expected to be particularly useful in situations where relatively few tunneling events are observed. Restriction to a lattice subvolume on which topological charge is not quantized is explored, and may lead to further improvement when the global topology is poorly sampled. We test our proposed method on a set of lattice data, and compare it to traditional methods.