Anatomy of new physics in B-(B)over-bar mixing

We analyze three different new physics scenarios for Delta F = 2 flavor-changing neutral currents in the quark sector in the light of recent data on neutral- meson mixing. We parametrize generic new physics contributions to B-q-(B) over bar (q) mixing, q = d, s, in terms of one complex quantity Delta(q), while three parameters Delta(tt)(K), Delta(tt)(K), and Delta(tt)(K) are needed to describe K-(K) over bar mixing. In scenario I, we consider uncorrelated new physics contributions in the B-d, B-s, and K sectors. In this scenario, it is only possible to constrain the parameters Delta(d) and Delta(s) whereas there are no nontrivial constraints on the kaon parameters. In scenario II, we study the case of minimal flavor violation (MFV) and small bottom Yukawa coupling, where Delta equivalent to Delta(d) = Delta(s) = Delta(tt)(K). We show that Delta must then be real, so that no new CP phases can be accommodated, and express the remaining parameters Delta(cc)(K) and Delta(ct)(K) in terms of Delta in this scenario. Scenario III is the generic MFV case with large bottom Yukawa couplings. In this case, the kaon sector is uncorrelated to the B-d and B-s sectors. As in the second scenario one has Delta(d) = Delta(s) equivalent to Delta, however, now with a complex parameter Delta. Our quantitative analyses consist of global Cabibbo- Kobayashi- Maskawa (CKM) fits within the Rfit frequentist statistical approach, determining the standard model parameters and the new physics parameters of the studied scenarios simultaneously. We find that the recent measurements indicating discrepancies with the standard model are well accommodated in Scenarios I and III with new mixing phases, with a slight preference for Scenario I that permits different new CP phases in the B-d and B-s systems. Within our statistical framework, we find evidence of new physics in both B-d and B-s systems. The standard model hypothesis Delta(d) = Delta(s) = 1 is disfavored with p- values of 3.6 sigma and 3.3 sigma in Scenarios I and III, respectively. We also present an exhaustive list of numerical predictions in each scenario. In particular, we predict the CP phase in B-s -> J/psi phi and the difference between the B-s and B-d semileptonic asymmetries, which will be both measured by the LHCb experiment.