Journal
PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
Volume 368, Issue 1624, Pages -Publisher
ROYAL SOC
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2012.0482
Keywords
tundra food web; climate change; ecological response; long-term monitoring; Arctic vertebrates; trophic interaction
Categories
Funding
- Canada Research Chairs Program
- Canadian Wildlife Service
- Fonds quebecois de la recherche sur la nature et les technologies
- International Polar Year program of Indian and Northern Affairs Canada (INAC)
- Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
- Network of Centers of Excellence of Canada ArcticNet
- Northern Ecosystem Initiative Program (Environment Canada)
- Northern Scientific Training Program (INAC)
- Parks Canada
- Polar Continental Shelf Program (Natural Resources Canada)
- Universite du Quebec a Rimouski
- Universite Laval
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Arctic wildlife is often presented as being highly at risk in the face of current climate warming. We use the long-term (up to 24 years) monitoring records available on Bylot Island in the Canadian Arctic to examine temporal trends in population attributes of several terrestrial vertebrates and in primary production. Despite a warming trend (e. g. cumulative annual thawing degree-days increased by 37% and snow-melt date advanced by 4-7 days over a 23-year period), we found little evidence for changes in the phenology, abundance or productivity of several vertebrate species (snow goose, foxes, lemmings, avian predators and one passerine). Only primary production showed a response to warming (annual above-ground biomass of wetland graminoids increased by 123% during this period). We nonetheless found evidence for potential mismatches between herbivores and their food plants in response to warming as snow geese adjusted their laying date by only 3.8 days on average for a change in snow-melt of 10 days, half of the corresponding adjustment shown by the timing of plant growth (7.1 days). We discuss several reasons (duration of time series, large annual variability, amplitude of observed climate change, nonlinear dynamic or constraints imposed by various rate of warming with latitude in migrants) to explain the lack of response by herbivores and predators to climate warming at our study site. We also show how length and intensity of monitoring could affect our ability to detect temporal trends and provide recommendations for future monitoring.
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