Journal
PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
Volume 365, Issue 1555, Pages 3177-3186Publisher
ROYAL SOC
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2010.0148
Keywords
climate change; demography; global warming; mismatch; phenology
Categories
Funding
- National Science Foundation [DEB 0922080, ARC 0713994, ARC 0902125]
- Directorate For Geosciences
- Office of Polar Programs (OPP) [0902125] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Division Of Environmental Biology
- Direct For Biological Sciences [0922080] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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Climate change is altering the phenology of species across the world, but what are the consequences of these phenological changes for the demography and population dynamics of species? Time-sensitive relationships, such as migration, breeding and predation, may be disrupted or altered, which may in turn alter the rates of reproduction and survival, leading some populations to decline and others to increase in abundance. However, finding evidence for disrupted relationships, or lack thereof, and their demographic effects, is difficult because the necessary detailed observational data are rare. Moreover, we do not know how sensitive species will generally be to phenological mismatches when they occur. Existing long-term studies provide preliminary data for analysing the phenology and demography of species in several locations. In many instances, though, observational protocols may need to be optimized to characterize timing-based multi-trophic interactions. As a basis for future research, we outline some of the key questions and approaches to improving our understanding of the relationships among phenology, demography and climate in a multi-trophic context. There are many challenges associated with this line of research, not the least of which is the need for detailed, long-term data on many organisms in a single system. However, we identify key questions that can be addressed with data that already exist and propose approaches that could guide future research.
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