Journal
PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
Volume 365, Issue 1548, Pages 1931-1941Publisher
ROYAL SOC
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2010.0065
Keywords
viral dynamics; within-host; dose
Categories
Funding
- NSF [EF-0742373]
- NIH [R01 GM083983-01]
- Emerging Frontiers
- Direct For Biological Sciences [742373, 1160765] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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We study the epidemiology of a viral disease with dose-dependent replication and transmission by nesting a differential-equation model of the within-host viral dynamics inside a between-host epidemiological model. We use two complementary approaches for nesting the models: an agent-based (AB) simulation and a mean-field approximation called the growth-matrix (GM) model. We find that although infection rates and predicted case loads are somewhat different between the AB and GM models, several epidemiological parameters, e. g. mean immunity in the population and mean dose received, behave similarly across the methods. Further, through a comparison of our dose-dependent replication model against two control models that uncouple dose-dependent replication from transmission, we find that host immunity in a population after an epidemic is qualitatively different than when transmission depends on time-varying viral abundances within hosts. These results show that within-host dynamics and viral dose should not be neglected in epidemiological models, and that the simpler GM approach to model nesting provides a reasonable tradeoff between model complexity and accuracy of results.
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