Scenario Prediction and Analysis of Urban Growth Using SLEUTH Model

Scenario prediction was introduced to better understand urban dynamics and to support urban planning. Taking the Dongguan central urban area of the Pearl River Delta, China as an example, three urban development scenarios, historical trend (HT) scenario, forest protection (FP) scenario, and growth restriction (GR) scenario, were designed and transplanted into the SLEUTH model through the parameter self-modification method. The quantitative analysis results showed that the urban area would expand continuously from 2003 to 2030 under the FIT scenario. More land resources would be saved under the GR scenario than FP scenario. Furthermore, the urban growth under the HT and FP scenarios would come to a steady state by 2020, while this deadline of the GR scenario would be postponed to 2025. The spatial pattern analysis using five spatial metrics, class area, number of patches, largest patch index, edge density, and contagion index, showed that under all the scenarios, the urban patches would become bigger and the form would become more compact, and the urban form under the GR scenario would be the smallest and most heterogeneous. These demonstrated that the GR scenario was more effective in meeting the goal of land protection and sustainable development for the study area.