Reorientation of China's agriculture over the next two decades

Arable (cereals, pulses and tubers) production has been the most important object of Chinese agriculture. China has long insisted on 'self-reliance on grain', often at the expense of resources and the environment. The impact of globalization and its entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) require China to reorient its agriculture over the next two decades so that it is based on ecological and economic principles. The alternatives are: (1) to increase grain imports to about 10% of total consumption; (2) to develop horticulture, livestock and aquaculture with their greater comparative advantages; (3) to expand the notion of agriculture by, for example, developing 'energyfarming'. The real future challenge for grain production will come from the rapid development of livestock production and its requirements, rather than growing edible grains for human consumption. To address this new type of livestock revolution, there will be a need to promote Chinese ecological agriculture (CEA) as well as to improve feed efficiency. The measures taken must focus on increasing farmers' incentives to help bring about the changes and on achieving the sustainable development of agriculture.