Looking Ahead in Long-Term Care: The Next 50 Years

During the next 50 years, demographic aging-including graying of the baby boomers, increased longevity, and lower fertility rates-will change the needs for long-term care in the United States. These trends will have a great impact on the federal budget related to spending for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Future years will see a more diverse population with increased aggressive treatment of chronic illness. Consumers of health care and their family caregivers will take more active steps to manage and coordinate their own care. Housing trends that produce more senior-friendly communities will encourage independent living rather than seniors' having to move into institutions; increased incentives for use of home- and community community-based care will allow people to stay longer in their own homes in the community. Technological advances, such as the use of robots who serve as companions and assistants around the house, will also decrease the need for institutional living.